Will the Democratic Party win the MI-08 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 89¢ reflects a heavily favored outcome with modest liquidity ($9K open interest, zero 24h volume), suggesting limited recent trading activity and potential difficulty executing large positions. The extreme 1470% implied yield on the "No" side combined with a realized volatility of 168% and cliff risk index of 8 indicates significant tail risk embedded in this market—the No contract is pricing in a dramatic upset scenario with minimal probability but outsized payoff potential. With 201 days to expiry and the 7-day price movement showing only a 4¢ appreciation (85¢ to 89¢), the market appears relatively stable despite the underlying volatility metrics, though the 3.40 vol ratio suggests elevated uncertainty relative to historical patterns.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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