Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1550.00 and 1599.99 at the end of December 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1550.00 and 1599.99 at the end of December 2026?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 6% probability reflects extreme skepticism that the Argentine peso will remain relatively stable at 1550-1599 ARS/USD by end-2026, with the implied yield on a "Yes" position reaching an extraordinary 2216.6%—a sign of either deep mispricing or market participants pricing in severe currency depreciation.
Analysis
The 6% probability reflects extreme skepticism that the Argentine peso will remain relatively stable at 1550-1599 ARS/USD by end-2026, with the implied yield on a "Yes" position reaching an extraordinary 2216.6%—a sign of either deep mispricing or market participants pricing in severe currency depreciation. Zero 24-hour volume combined with $714k open interest and a wide 7¢ spread suggests illiquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions, while the 7-cent price decline over the past week indicates weakening conviction in this narrow range outcome. With 258 days to expiration and Argentina's historical volatility, the cliff risk index of 16 suggests meaningful tail risk, though the neutral regime score suggests current conditions haven't dramatically shifted market expectations.
Resolution rules
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x895e3215d73dfdaf2253ce268065c7e9670b15bf4cae479814011e9f26130126 yes 100