Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of April?

This market shows extreme annualized yields (3067% Yes / 3323% No) driven by its 11-day expiration window, but the $100 daily volume and $876.50 open interest suggest severe illiquidity that likely inflates both the price and volatility metrics. The 25¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 51¢ mid-price, and the 678% realized volatility combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 1 indicates this contract is highly sensitive to tail events in the final days before April 30, 2026. The 7-point price decline from 58¢ to 51¢ over the past week suggests weakening conviction in the Yes outcome, though the neutral regime score (0.5) and 4.0 info arrivals per hour point to genuine uncertainty rather than directional bias.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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