Will the New York Yankees win more than 86.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?
Prediction markets currently give a 76% probability that Will the New York Yankees win more than 86.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?. This contract trades at 76¢ on Polymarket, closing October 5, 2026. The market shows a significant pricing disconnect with the "No" side offering an extreme 753.6% implied yield versus just 60% for "Yes," despite the 78¢ price suggesting strong confidence in over 86.5 wins.
Analysis
The market shows a significant pricing disconnect with the "No" side offering an extreme 753.6% implied yield versus just 60% for "Yes," despite the 78¢ price suggesting strong confidence in over 86.5 wins. The 35¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the high yields potentially unreliable—this appears to be a mispriced or abandoned market rather than a genuine opportunity. With 172 days to expiry and a notable 5¢ price decline over seven days, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish reliable probability estimates.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "O 86.5" if the New York Yankees win more than 86.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the New York Yankees to record more than 86.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 86.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x89b2dace58f22169aba6613bc97da772a7d28a3355553eae39ab05edbfb4a184 yes 100