What is the current probability for "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 30¢ (30% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 69 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1295.8% and 216.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

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30¢

Bid/Ask 25/35¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $1,030.211·OI $843.517·Closes Jun 30, 2026·69d remaining

0x8ad67416f1aee0c26200848b8f663322d251946cdd552bd6c7a4ea262582ac73

7-day price609 snapshots · 19 regime

63¢29¢ current

Apr 825¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1295.8%

IY (No) 216.2%

Adj IY 648%

CRI 2

Overround 1.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1295.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	216.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	648%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:56:55 AM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x8ad67416f1aee0c26200848b8f663322d251946cdd552bd6c7a4ea262582ac73 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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