Will Breece Hall be traded?

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Breece Hall be traded?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing July 22, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price generating an implausible 12,206.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting minimal liquidity and potential calculation artifacts given the $0 24-hour volume despite $745,975 open interest.

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3¢
Bid/Ask 1/5¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $730.711·Closes Jul 22, 2026·91d remaining
0x8b116f8d604a7087136aaa16a6b3a0f9b5164916ce604825e42108dc76762474
7-day price100 snapshots · 4 regime
3¢3¢ current
Apr 82¢Apr 13

Analysis

5d ago

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price generating an implausible 12,206.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting minimal liquidity and potential calculation artifacts given the $0 24-hour volume despite $745,975 open interest. The 4¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the 97-day timeframe to expiry provides reasonable runway for a trade to occur, though Breece Hall's current roster status would need to change dramatically for this outcome. The neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk index (32) suggest the market lacks strong directional conviction, likely reflecting genuine uncertainty about Hall's future rather than informed positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed NFL player is traded by July 22, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 12974.1%
IY (No) 12.4%
Adj IY 6487%
CRI 32
Overround 1.9%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)12974.1%
IY (No)12.4%
Adj IY6487%
CRI32
Overround1.9%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:57:58 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x8b116f8d604a7087136aaa16a6b3a0f9b5164916ce604825e42108dc76762474 yes 100

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