Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing June 23, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price generating an absurd 17,626% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a data anomaly given the modest $14.3M open interest and minimal $7.16 daily volume.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price generating an absurd 17,626% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a data anomaly given the modest $14.3M open interest and minimal $7.16 daily volume. The price has declined sharply from 4¢ to 3¢ over seven days, yet the cliff risk index of 32 indicates meaningful uncertainty about market mechanics or resolution criteria. With only 67 days to expiry and a zero-spread market, this appears to be a thin, potentially mispriced contract where the extreme yield figures warrant skepticism about their reliability.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maryland, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maryland Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maryland Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x8c128a0cba1a284ee5c41413da1caedbeb56eb7310e1cbaf50d9111142696781 yes 100