What is the current probability for "Will Shanghai Dongfang win CBA?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 50¢ (50% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 12, 2026. 226 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Shanghai Dongfang win CBA?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 168.4% and 155.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Shanghai Dongfang win CBA?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Shanghai Dongfang win CBA?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Shanghai Dongfang win CBA?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Polymarket, closing December 12, 2026.

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50¢

Bid/Ask 1/98¢·Spread 97¢·Vol $0·OI $3.1·Closes Dec 12, 2026·226d remaining

0x8cb0ebc49f0531ee83193f90e7a8bc5963b33affc8d4795c361e62abb442eeef

7-day price710 snapshots · 1 regime

66¢49¢ current

Apr 2549¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the CBA. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of CBA per the rules of CBA (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after December 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the CBA; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 168.4%

IY (No) 155.4%

Adj IY 168%

CRI 1

RV 362%

VR 3.21

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	168.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	155.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	168%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	362%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.21	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	8.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

97¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 9:38:42 AM

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 9:38:20 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x8cb0ebc49f0531ee83193f90e7a8bc5963b33affc8d4795c361e62abb442eeef yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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