Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

The 23¢ price reflects a modest 23% probability of U.S. military intervention in Latin America by end-2026, though the asymmetric implied yields (473.7% for Yes vs. 42.3% for No) suggest significant tail-risk positioning by contrarian traders betting on escalation. With $52.1M open interest against only $101K daily volume, liquidity is notably thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk and indicating this remains a niche conviction market rather than a consensus view. The slight 1¢ downward price movement over seven days and neutral regime score suggest the market is pricing stable geopolitical conditions, though the 3-level Cliff Risk Index warrants monitoring for sudden resolution triggers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Indicators

Regime

Trade