Will Rand Paul be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Rand Paul be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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23¢
Bid/Ask 1/44¢·Spread 43¢·Vol $0·OI $414.316·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining
0x2b482dad4a133d79ec30e65ce6d6600614e54ddbeb758c65480eea9d1a00ece3
7-day price130 snapshots · 3 regime
50¢21¢ current
Apr 91¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

On February 12, 2026, Rep. Ro Khanna posted a document on X that displays an email with the subject line "I beat Bush" addressed to Jeffrey Epstein, calling for the sender’s identity to be unredacted. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/reprokhanna/status/2022046192478327156 This market will resolve to the individual whose email account is confirmed to have sent the specified message by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no individual's email account is confirmed to have sent the message by the end date, this market will resolve to "Not revealed in 2026". The identity of the account must be revealed unambiguously, for example, through a public unredaction of the document in question, which clearly and definitively reveals the sender’s address. Official statements regarding the sender’s identity, or any confirmation that does not involve public unredaction of the specified document, including access limited to House members, congressional committees, or other restricted parties, will qualify only if there is a broad consensus as to their truthfulness. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 529.1%
IY (No) 42.1%
Adj IY 0%
CRI 4
Overround 0.9%
LAS 2.50
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)529.1%
IY (No)42.1%
Adj IY0%
CRI4
Overround0.9%
LAS2.50

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.568
Spread
43¢
Computed
4/30/2026, 10:26:19 AM
Observability highEvent type political
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 10:23:45 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x2b482dad4a133d79ec30e65ce6d6600614e54ddbeb758c65480eea9d1a00ece3 yes 100

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