Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Polymarket.

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24¢
Bid/Ask 23/25¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $37.22·OI $26,543.531·195d remaining
0x8ccbfc876e2f979a0ab1423589abea04bb71512cc6bd5d9dbeef7f820b8f8e69
7-day price220 snapshots · 2 regime
27¢24¢ current
Apr 821¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 592.8%
IY (No) 59.1%
Adj IY 296%
CRI 3
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)592.8%
IY (No)59.1%
Adj IY296%
CRI3

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.477
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:53:49 AM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x8ccbfc876e2f979a0ab1423589abea04bb71512cc6bd5d9dbeef7f820b8f8e69 yes 100

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