Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?

The Democratic contract on TX-35 is pricing in a 47% win probability with extremely thin liquidity—zero 24-hour volume and just $15,590 open interest—making the 204.9% implied yield potentially misleading as it reflects illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity. The 734% realized volatility and 15¢ spread suggest this market lacks reliable price discovery, and the 5.41 volume ratio indicates sporadic, concentrated trading rather than continuous market participation. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this market appears undermonitored and should be treated cautiously until liquidity improves or more information arrives.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade