Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?

The 8¢ price reflects an extremely low 8% probability of crude oil reaching $55 by end-June 2026, yet the asymmetric implied yields (6555% for Yes vs. 37% for No) suggest significant tail-risk mispricing or speculative positioning. With $29M open interest against just $1.98M daily volume and a realized volatility of 1028%, this market exhibits classic illiquidity characteristics where small position sizes could drive outsized price swings, making the current pricing potentially unreliable. The 74-day timeframe and neutral regime (0.341 score) offer limited catalysts for the ~$30 move required from current levels, though the high cliff risk index (13) indicates concentrated expiration risk that could create volatility spikes near resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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