Will the Democratic Party win the WI-04 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (93%) that Democrats retain Wisconsin's 4th congressional district, though the zero 24-hour volume and modest $23.8K open interest suggest minimal recent trading activity and potential liquidity concerns. The asymmetric implied yields—13.7% for Yes versus an extreme 2,416.7% for No—indicate severe mispricing or illiquidity on the No side, with the cliff risk index of 13 suggesting elevated tail risk near the November 2026 resolution date. With over 200 days until expiry, this market may be undervaluing Republican competitive chances in what is typically a Democratic-leaning district, but traders should be cautious given the thin liquidity environment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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