Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 0.3%?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 23¢ price implying only 23% probability for modest 0-0.3% UK GDP growth, yet the Yes position offers an extraordinary 4414% annualized yield—a red flag suggesting either severe illiquidity or significant model disagreement. The $307k open interest against just $25 daily volume indicates thin liquidity with a wide 5¢ spread, making the quoted price potentially unreliable, and the 1067% realized volatility reflects wild swings rather than genuine uncertainty about UK economic growth. With resolution occurring exactly at market close on 5/14/2026 (28 days out) and recent price movement from 18¢ to 23¢, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the extreme yield may simply reflect difficulty in execution rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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