Will Howard Steven Rance be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Howard Steven Rance be the Republican nominee for FL-09?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing August 18, 2026. This extremely illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume and only $9.2k open interest is pricing Rance at just 4¢, implying a 7,123% annualized yield—a red flag suggesting either severe mispricing or minimal genuine belief in the outcome.
Analysis
This extremely illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume and only $9.2k open interest is pricing Rance at just 4¢, implying a 7,123% annualized yield—a red flag suggesting either severe mispricing or minimal genuine belief in the outcome. The tight 4¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate the market lacks conviction, and with 123 days to expiry, the cliff risk index of 24 suggests potential volatility as the August 18 primary approaches. The massive disparity between the Yes yield (7,123%) and No yield (12.4%) reflects the illiquidity trap typical of long-tail political markets with negligible trading activity.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x9574e09299ee4f86b78eb7645baab88acf6d665858ae7ca50a8299c0e3e75b7a yes 100