Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?

This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes position trading at just 14¢ despite an astronomical 18,829% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or anticipated resolution within days rather than the stated 13-day window. The sharp 5-cent price decline over seven days combined with a 1,596% realized volatility and high cliff risk index (7/10) indicates acute uncertainty around the imminent April 30 GDP release, which will directly determine the outcome. With only $498 in 24-hour volume against $3.6M open interest, the illiquid market may not be efficiently pricing the actual probability that Q1 2026 GDP growth lands in the 2.5-3.0% range.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

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