Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $25.7M open interest, suggesting the positions are stale and the 6¢ price may not reflect current consensus. The astronomical 2,859.6% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of deep out-of-the-money pricing in a heavily Democratic state where Republicans have minimal recent electoral success, creating a high-risk/high-reward asymmetry. The 7¢ decline over seven days and moderate 16 cliff risk index warrant caution, as the wide 3¢ spread indicates difficulty finding counterparties at these extremes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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