Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided outcome with Democrats at 92¢, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $21k open interest suggest minimal conviction behind this consensus—likely reflecting AL-02's strong Republican lean rather than active trading. The No side's 2098.6% implied yield is a statistical artifact of the tiny 8¢ spread at such an extreme price, indicating minimal liquidity for contrarian bets and a potential cliff risk if unexpected dynamics emerge before the 200-day expiry. With 20 months until resolution, this market appears to be pricing in structural Republican advantage in this district rather than reflecting genuine market discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade