Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat?

The Democratic probability in NC-05 has collapsed from 8¢ to 6¢ over seven days, reflecting strong Republican lean in this district, yet the extreme 2,850% implied yield on Yes contracts suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. With only $5 in 24-hour volume against $14M open interest and a 4.20 volatility ratio, the market appears dominated by a small number of positions, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable for forecasting purposes. The 201-day timeline to the November 2026 election provides ample time for political shifts, but the current micro-liquidity and high cliff risk (16) indicate this is a thin, speculative market rather than an efficient price discovery mechanism.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade