Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.9% and 1.2%?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 27¢ price generating an implausible 3,391% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe liquidity constraints rather than genuine probability assessment—the $157,919 open interest against a 52¢ spread indicates thin order books vulnerable to slippage. The 2,675% realized volatility and 1.8 information arrivals per hour signal this is a highly speculative micro-market where the narrow 0.9-1.2% GDP band creates binary cliff risk (index of 3), making the recent 3¢ price rise (24¢ to 27¢) potentially noise rather than informed conviction. With only 28 days to resolution and Q1 2026 GDP data arriving on the exact close date, this market is essentially a bet on UK economic data landing in a tight range with minimal time for price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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