Will "Michael" make it into the IMDb Top 250?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Will "Michael" make it into the IMDb Top 250?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Polymarket, closing March 31, 2027. This illiquid market on a niche film outcome shows extreme asymmetry, with the "Yes" side offering a 314% implied yield versus just 34.9% for "No"—a 9x differential suggesting significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about whether "Michael" will achieve Top 250 status.
Analysis
This illiquid market on a niche film outcome shows extreme asymmetry, with the "Yes" side offering a 314% implied yield versus just 34.9% for "No"—a 9x differential suggesting significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about whether "Michael" will achieve Top 250 status. The 45¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate minimal trading activity despite $1.69k open interest, while the 610% realized volatility and 3.48 vol ratio point to sharp historical price swings that may not reflect fundamental changes in the film's prospects. With 349 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this appears to be a speculative position on a film's critical reception rather than an actively traded market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named movie is listed on the IMDb Top 250 Movies list by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the listed movie enters the IMDb Top 250 Movies list. The resolution source for this market will be IMDb (https://www.imdb.com/chart/top/). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
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Trade
sf trade 0x9d58fefc0ab3d17e7a5f363dc97638525d9769a2637849a6a7b1a97ebc34b837 yes 100