Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

The "Yes" side offers an exceptional 324% implied yield, suggesting the market significantly underprices the probability of Republicans dropping below 190 seats—a loss of roughly 40+ seats from their current majority. With only $29k in 24-hour volume against $18.2M open interest, liquidity is notably thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk and indicating this may be a niche contrarian bet. The 4-point price rise over seven days (32¢ to 36¢) combined with a neutral regime score suggests cautious accumulation rather than conviction, though the extreme yield asymmetry warrants scrutiny of whether the market is properly calibrated to historical midterm swing patterns.

Resolution rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

Regime

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