Will Laurie MacKenzie advance from the CA-04 primary election?
0xa3547b73ba1e2d690d1073d3d215175534d557d542f20a3ff18e6cb9cdc5d9aa · closes Jun 2, 2026 · 48 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 8742.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 66.1% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 12 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.8% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.25 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1547% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.68 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.1/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 6557% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
97 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xa3547b73ba1e2d690d1073d3d215175534d557d542f20a3ff18e6cb9cdc5d9aa yes 100