Will Sheila Garrity win the 2026 Galway West by-election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion, with zero 24-hour volume despite $4,255 open interest and a massive 3392% implied yield on the Yes side—a classic sign of stale pricing on a low-liquidity venue. The 7-cent price collapse over seven days combined with 2724% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 32 suggests significant uncertainty around the triggering event (Catherine Connolly's presidential election), making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable. With 348 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of only 0.5 events per hour, this market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish a credible probability estimate for Sheila Garrity's candidacy.

Resolution rules

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Regime

Trade