Will Luxembourg come in last place at Eurovision 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 14,127% implied yield on the "Yes" side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a structural arbitrage opportunity at the 8¢ price. The 12¢ spread and minimal $62.8 daily volume indicate dangerously thin liquidity, making the 8% probability potentially unreliable given Luxembourg's historical mid-table Eurovision performance. With 30 days to resolution and a realized volatility of 2,832%, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the price may not reflect true odds—traders should be cautious of the cliff risk (index of 12) as the May 16 close approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

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