Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?

The 73¢ price reflects strong market consensus that Mexico's central bank will hold rates steady at its May meeting, though the extreme 5,023% implied yield on the "No" outcome signals severe tail risk pricing for a rate change. With only 21 days to expiry and $1.94k in daily volume against $2.46k open interest, liquidity is modest but the 3¢ spread remains tight, suggesting the market is fairly efficient despite the sharp 6¢ decline over seven days (80¢ to 74¢). The 227% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index indicate elevated uncertainty around the actual policy decision, which may not be fully reflected in the current price given the information arrival rate of 1.0 per hour.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Indicators

Regime

Trade