Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $764k open interest, creating a dangerously wide 26¢ spread that likely doesn't reflect true fair value. The 31% price at 31¢ implies AAPL needs to gain roughly 19% from current levels in just 11 days, yet the astronomical 7179% implied yield on the Yes side suggests the market is severely mispriced or illiquid traders are demanding outsized compensation for execution risk. With 940% realized volatility and only a 3.4/hour information arrival rate, this appears to be a dead market where the last trade (up from 26¢) may not reflect genuine conviction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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