Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 869% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 23% on the "No" side, suggesting traders view a five-country strike scenario as highly unlikely but potentially underpriced given geopolitical volatility. The price has collapsed 82% over seven days (from 27¢ to 15¢) despite elevated realized volatility of 1397%, indicating a sharp reassessment of risk rather than increased uncertainty. With only $969 in daily volume against $14.3M open interest and a 9¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating potential execution challenges and vulnerability to sudden repricing if new geopolitical developments emerge before the year-end expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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