Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-04-22?

This market shows a significant 7-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap, with Polymarket pricing Houston Dynamo's win probability at 44¢ versus Kalshi's 37¢, suggesting potential mispricing or liquidity differences between venues. The extraordinarily high implied yields (6867% for Yes, 4239% for No) combined with zero 24-hour volume and only $1.01M open interest indicate severe illiquidity and likely distorted pricing as the market approaches resolution in just 7 days. The 9-point price decline over the period (49¢ to 44¢) and extreme realized volatility of 433% suggest this thin market is highly sensitive to information arrival, with the neutral regime score masking substantial underlying uncertainty about the match outcome.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 22, 2026 If Houston Dynamo wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

Regime

Trade