Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
5 contracts
Closes
Oct 31, 2028
859 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Will San Diego” vs “Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will San Diego
Cluster 2
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego
KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-SD
Cluster 3
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
Analysis
This 17% probability reflects the market's assessment that San Diego FC will defeat Houston Dynamo in a specific matchup during the 2026 season. The low probability suggests Houston is favored, which could reflect Houston's recent performance, head-to-head history, or current roster strength. San Diego's contract prices across related markets—showing 34 cents for playoff qualification but only 7 cents for 90+ wins—indicate uncertainty about the team's overall 2026 competitiveness, which may constrain expectations for individual game outcomes. The probability would move higher if San Diego improves recent results before this matchup or if Houston faces injury concerns. The specific game date will be the primary determinant of resolution, likely occurring between March and October 2026 depending on league scheduling.
- ›San Diego's projected win total sits at 20 cents for 85+ wins and 7 cents for 90+ wins, suggesting market expects sub-.500 or modest performance relative to competitive teams
- ›Houston's implied favorability in this contract (83% implied win probability) reflects their relative standing in the league at time of assessment
- ›San Diego's 34-cent probability for playoff qualification indicates the team faces significant structural challenges that would also affect individual matchup outcomes
- ›The matchup outcome depends on team roster composition, injuries, and form on the specific game date, none of which are determined as of June 2026
- ›Contract volume is low across related San Diego markets ($27-$336 24h volume), suggesting limited market depth and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
What moved the line
- Jun 20San Diego↓11pp30→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24San Diego↑7pp22→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1885+ wins↓7pp27→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1890+ wins↓7pp14→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18San Diego↑4pp22→26¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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