Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

The 30¢ price reflects a relatively low probability of Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2026, with substantial asymmetry in risk-adjusted returns (330.2% yield on Yes vs. 60.6% on No), suggesting market participants view escalation or stalemate as more likely outcomes. With $454,603 in open interest and $163,911 in 24-hour volume, liquidity is moderate but the tight 1¢ spread indicates reasonable market efficiency. The neutral regime score (0.409) and minimal 7-day price movement (31¢ to 30¢) suggest stable sentiment, though the 258-day timeframe leaves substantial room for geopolitical developments to shift probabilities materially.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

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Regime

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