Will there be a Ukraine ceasefire?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$103
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 19, 2026
12 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Bank of Russia Maintain current rate at the June Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting
Recently closed in ukraine
- Will Gavin Newsom endorse Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial race before Jun 2, 2026last 77% · 5d
- Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by...last 97% · 8d
- What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Councillast 6% · 9d
- Will Steve Hilton lead the next qualifying NYT poll in the 2026 California gubernatorial racelast 25% · 9d
- Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31last 3% · 10d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
Russia Captures Ukrainian Town: War Odds Flip
The probability of Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by May 31 jumped 59¢ to 83¢, signaling a major battlefield gain. This has knock-on effects for Ukraine peace deal markets and oil supply concerns from potential disruptions in the Black Sea.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.