Will there be a Ukraine ceasefire?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 30 contracts. Kalshi at 6%, Polymarket at 38% — a 32pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
15 contracts
Polymarket
38%
15 contracts
Cross-venue gap
32pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7.2M
30 contracts
Closes
Jun 19, 2026
0 days
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 6¢ · Polymarket 38¢ · 32pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (6¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (38¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize” vs “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-DJT
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-SUD
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-27-PLEO
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-VOL
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-DOC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-MIN
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-27-STC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-27-UNRWA
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-ELO
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-FRA
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-27-YNAV
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-ICJ
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-NAR
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-DAR
Cluster 2
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?: December 31
0x5c19f2…8fdd
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?: October 31
0x6c3f10…a32f
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?: December 31
0x84c625…a72f
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?: October 31
0xde5c4c…93c4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?: June 30, 2027
0x1e4ad3…6b78
Cluster 3
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Oct 1, 2026
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Oct 1, 2026?
KXZELENSKYYOUT-26OCT01
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in ukraine.
In ukraine
Related reading
Russia-Ukraine War Dynamics Shifting: Kostyantynivka and Election Signals
Russia-Ukraine War Dynamics Show Mixed Signals: Kostyantynivka Remains Contested as Political Probabilities Fluctuate, with Peace Deal Prospects Still Distant Heading into Late 2026.
Russia Advancing on Donbas — Kostyantynivka Capture by June at 62%
Prediction markets price Kostyantynivka capture by June 2026 at 62%, reflecting expectations of sustained Russian Donbas momentum and minimal ceasefire prospects through 2026.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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