Will there be a Ukraine ceasefire?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 7%, Polymarket at 21% — a 14pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
15 contracts
Polymarket
21%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
14pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4.3M
20 contracts
Closes
Jun 19, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 7¢ · Polymarket 21¢ · 14pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (7¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (21¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize” vs “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-DJT
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-27-PLEO
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-SUD
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-VOL
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-MIN
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-DOC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-ELO
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-ICJ
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-FRA
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-27-STC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-27-UNRWA
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
KXNOBELPEACE-26-NAR
Cluster 2
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?: December 31
0x5c19f2…8fdd
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?: October 31
0x6c3f10…a32f
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?: August 31
0xfb8ac1…3727
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?: October 31
0xde5c4c…93c4
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?: December 31
0x84c625…a72f
Cluster 3
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Oct 1, 2026
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Oct 1, 2026?
KXZELENSKYYOUT-26OCT01
Cluster 4
Will Ukraine hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027
Will Ukraine hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?
KXELECTUKRAINE-30JAN01-27JAN01
Cluster 5
Will the European Union agree to or announce that Ukraine will receive a Pre-Accession Institutional Participation Status before Jan 1, 2027
Recently closed in ukraine
- Will Darline Graham Nordone be the next the Class 2 U.S. Senator from South Carolina before Jan 4, 2027last 97% · 8d
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30last 3% · 34d
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by...last 64% · 34d
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026last 3% · 34d
- Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...last 3% · 34d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in ukraine.
In ukraine
Related reading
Russia Advancing on Donbas — Kostyantynivka Capture by June at 62%
Prediction markets price Kostyantynivka capture by June 2026 at 62%, reflecting expectations of sustained Russian Donbas momentum and minimal ceasefire prospects through 2026.
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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