Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 608.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus 54.3% on the No side, suggesting the 23¢ price significantly undervalues Democratic chances in NV-02 relative to historical performance or consensus expectations. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $21k open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates low liquidity despite the substantial yield differential, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears mispriced rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty, though the modest Cliff Risk Index of 3 suggests relatively stable pricing dynamics leading into the 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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