What is the current probability for "Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on April 30, 2026. 8 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100000.0% and 184.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 1/8¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $681.324·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining

0xb4da59d49acb0311b33c6a6051ec72a9e44c2a0860415909aef5c1d8a4aee59f

7-day price764 snapshots · 1 regime

22¢4¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%

IY (No) 184.7%

Adj IY >100,000%

CRI 24

RV 3771%

VR 2.01

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	>100,000%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	184.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	>100,000%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3771%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.01	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	4.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 6:34:27 PM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 6:23:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xb4da59d49acb0311b33c6a6051ec72a9e44c2a0860415909aef5c1d8a4aee59f yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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