Will Helen Ogbu win the 2026 Galway West by-election?

Helen Ogbu's odds have surged 700% in seven days to 8¢, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume with an 11¢ spread, suggesting the price movement reflects thin liquidity rather than genuine conviction. The extreme 1204% implied yield on the Yes side and 2981% realized volatility indicate this is a highly speculative, low-information market where the $1.5M open interest masks potential difficulty actually executing trades at posted prices. With 349 days to resolution and an info arrival rate of only 1.3 events per hour, this appears to be a niche Irish political market where price discovery remains incomplete.

Resolution rules

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade