Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

This market is pricing in only a 5% probability that Republicans will hold 220-224 House seats after 2026, implying the market expects either significantly stronger or weaker Republican performance than this narrow band. The extreme implied yield of 3,467% on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and $15,921 open interest suggests this is a highly illiquid niche outcome with minimal trading activity, making the price potentially unreliable. With 200 days to expiration and a wide 3¢ spread, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the pricing may not reflect true probability given the thin liquidity and lack of recent price discovery.

Resolution rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

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