Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

The Amal Movement contract has experienced explosive volatility, surging 1,100% over seven days from 2¢ to 24¢, though the 25% current price still implies significant skepticism about winning the most seats. The extreme implied yield of 2,943% on the Yes side reflects both the low absolute price and the market's perception of high tail risk, while the 3,395% realized volatility and 2.56 vol ratio indicate this is a highly speculative position with substantial uncertainty. With only 44 days to expiry and $14M open interest against just $1M daily volume, liquidity is relatively thin for the position size, creating potential execution challenges and suggesting the recent price movement may reflect limited order flow rather than broad conviction.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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