Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?

The 17% probability reflects significant skepticism about gold reaching $5,000-$5,400 by June 2026, implying a required ~$1,200+ rally from current spot prices—a move that would represent roughly a 30% increase in less than 18 months. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,409% on the "Yes" side signals extreme mispricing or illiquidity concerns, particularly given the modest $97k daily volume against $11.5M open interest, suggesting this contract may lack sufficient depth for reliable price discovery. With 74 days to expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, the market appears relatively stable, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 5 warrants caution regarding potential sharp repricing as the resolution date approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Indicators

Regime

Trade