Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market is pricing in a 76% probability of Danielle Haim attending Taylor Swift's wedding, but the extreme 448% implied yield on the "No" side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a 31¢ spread suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 76% probability of Danielle Haim attending Taylor Swift's wedding, but the extreme 448% implied yield on the "No" side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a 31¢ spread suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. The 160% realized volatility and 2.32 vol ratio indicate this is a highly speculative micro-market where the high price may reflect thin order books rather than fundamental assessment, particularly given that the resolution depends on two separate contingencies: Swift and Kelce actually marrying, and Haim being invited and attending.
Also on kalshi at 76¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the named people who attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding. If no wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". the resolution source for this market will be photographic or video evidence of the event, or by statements from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, the attendee, or their legal or social media representatives. Only physical attendance of the event will qualify; virtual attendance or confirmation of an invitation will not count.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xbc88a1fd20ced1ccf45506178e78261c11ecb45ec0a5a35198156228fa4e1e39 yes 100