What is the current probability for "Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 79¢ (79% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2028. 977 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 11.8% and 118.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?

Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2028. The market is pricing in a 77% probability of Danielle Haim attending a Swift-Kelce wedding, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $1,171.85 open interest suggest minimal conviction behind this price.

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79¢

Bid/Ask 76/77¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $1,185.9·Closes Dec 31, 2028·977d remaining

KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDINGATTEND-28DEC31-DAN

7-day price580 snapshots · 5 regime

76¢76¢ current

Apr 968¢Apr 29

Analysis

12d ago

The market is pricing in a 77% probability of Danielle Haim attending a Swift-Kelce wedding, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $1,171.85 open interest suggest minimal conviction behind this price. The asymmetric implied yields (13.6% for Yes vs. 99.7% for No) indicate the No side is severely mispriced relative to the long time horizon, creating a potential arbitrage opportunity for contrarian bettors willing to take on the cliff risk of an actual wedding announcement.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 78¢(Δ +1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 42.0%Close-time delta 17559h

Resolution rules

If Danielle Haim attended Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 11.8%

IY (No) 118.3%

Adj IY 58%

CRI 3

Overround 8.3%

LAS 0.01

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	11.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	118.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	58%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	8.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 8:48:51 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/29/2026, 8:38:54 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDINGATTEND-28DEC31-DAN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →