Will the Democratic Party win the WA-08 House seat?

This WA-08 Democratic seat market shows significant illiquidity concerns with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.79M open interest and an unusually wide 35¢ spread, suggesting limited active trading. The extreme 517% implied yield on "No" positions indicates the market is pricing in a sharp repricing risk, likely reflecting uncertainty about the district's competitiveness heading into the 2026 cycle with 201 days to expiration. The 302% realized volatility and 3.74 vol ratio suggest this contract has experienced substantial price swings, though the modest 7-day movement (73¢ to 74¢) indicates recent stabilization around the 75¢ level.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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