Will Gary Goodweather win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Gary Goodweather win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket. This market shows extreme distress signals with Gary Goodweather's odds collapsing from 25¢ to 3¢ over seven days—a 88% price decline—while the implied yield on "Yes" positions has exploded to an absurd 19,695%, indicating the market has priced in near-certain failure.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with Gary Goodweather's odds collapsing from 25¢ to 3¢ over seven days—a 88% price decline—while the implied yield on "Yes" positions has exploded to an absurd 19,695%, indicating the market has priced in near-certain failure. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $2.2M open interest and a wide 4¢ spread suggests liquidity has evaporated precisely when the price moved sharply, creating a potential trap for any trader trying to exit positions. With realized volatility at 3,212% and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this appears to be either a liquidity crisis on a speculative long-shot candidate or a market correction following new information about Goodweather's viability in the June 2026 primary.
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic primary election for the mayor of Washington D.C., scheduled to be held June 16, 2026. If no 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the D.C. Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xbda4383cab42acaf2bf5e96a46fc983e5d87716392996bf277936985ed02ad14 yes 100