Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $1,586 open interest, suggesting minimal trader interest in a Gary Goodweather victory at just 5¢.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $1,586 open interest, suggesting minimal trader interest in a Gary Goodweather victory at just 5¢. The astronomical 2,086.7% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the low price floor rather than genuine opportunity, while the sharp 50% price decline over seven days (from 4¢ to 2¢) indicates weakening conviction among existing holders. With over 18 months until expiry and a moderate 32 cliff risk index, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet with poor market depth rather than a mispriced opportunity.
Also on polymarket at 3¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
If Gary Goodweather wins the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDCMAYORD-26-GGOO yes 100