Will the Republican Party win the CA-31 House seat?

The Republican position at 7¢ reflects an extremely bullish Democratic lean in CA-31, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 2425% implied yield against minimal 24-hour volume of $0, suggesting this is a highly illiquid market with potentially stale pricing. The 1¢ spread and $16.5K open interest indicate limited market depth, while the 13 Cliff Risk Index flags elevated volatility risk as we approach the November 2026 election. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this market appears underpriced for Republican chances if the district has shown any recent competitive tightening, though the zero volume suggests traders may be avoiding the liquidity constraints.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade