Will Poland come in last place at Eurovision 2026?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 5¢ price implying only 5% probability that Poland finishes last, yet the Yes side offers an absurd 24,792% implied yield—a massive red flag suggesting either a liquidity trap or fundamental mispricing. The 8¢ spread is unusually wide for a binary market, and with only $13.61 in 24-hour volume against $8.3M open interest, liquidity is dangerously thin, making the quoted price potentially unreliable. The 2,805% realized volatility and recent 1¢ price decline over seven days, combined with 28 days to expiry and a neutral regime, suggest this market may be illiquid or subject to manipulation rather than reflecting genuine Eurovision forecasting consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Indicators

Regime

Trade