Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.1M open interest, suggesting the 37¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the thin order book and 4¢ spread. The astronomical implied yield of 4,775% on the Yes side, combined with a realized volatility of 315% and a sharp 26¢ price surge over seven days, indicates either significant new information arrival or potential mispricing in a market closing in just 13 days. With resolution tied to Mexico's official Q1 2026 GDP release scheduled exactly at market close (4/30/2026), execution risk is minimal, but the neutral regime score and low volume suggest this may be a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced forecast.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Indicators

Regime

Trade