Will the Republican Party win the PA-09 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high 93% probability for Republican victory in PA-09, yet shows zero 24-hour volume and modest $26k open interest, suggesting limited liquidity despite the tight 1¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—13.7% for Yes versus an extreme 2416.7% for No—indicate severe mispricing or that contrarian bets are being heavily discounted, with a cliff risk index of 13 flagging potential resolution ambiguity. With 201 days to the November 2026 election and no recent price movement, this market appears to reflect settled consensus rather than active trading, making it difficult to assess whether the 93¢ price reflects genuine fundamentals or simply reflects a lack of competitive interest.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade