Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 59¢ price reflects moderate conviction in a Trump-Putin meeting occurring within the next 258 days, though the extreme 203.6% implied yield on the "No" side suggests significant skepticism among contrarian traders betting against the outcome.
Analysis
The 59¢ price reflects moderate conviction in a Trump-Putin meeting occurring within the next 258 days, though the extreme 203.6% implied yield on the "No" side suggests significant skepticism among contrarian traders betting against the outcome. With only $46.9 in 24-hour volume against $16.8k open interest and a towering 459% realized volatility, this market shows classic illiquidity patterns where small trades could move prices substantially, making the tight 1¢ spread somewhat misleading about true execution costs. The 4.36 vol ratio and 1.6 info arrivals per hour indicate elevated sensitivity to geopolitical developments, though the neutral regime score and modest 3¢ weekly price movement suggest the market hasn't yet priced in major catalysts.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xc57bc9d0d9890815aa31d498d57af5d2d6e8d5245fd5ab104dfd7aed8c7b7081 yes 100