Will the Chicago Cubs win more than 86.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $685k open interest, suggesting the position is largely illiquid and the 45¢ price may not reflect true market consensus. The 40¢ spread is notably wide relative to the mid-price, and the 259.8% implied yield on the Yes side indicates substantial expected returns if the Cubs exceed 86.5 wins—well above typical market compensation for risk over 172 days. The flat 7-day price action (44¢ to 45¢) combined with neutral regime scoring suggests this market lacks conviction and may be vulnerable to sharp repricing once meaningful volume emerges.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "O 86.5" if the Chicago Cubs win more than 86.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Chicago Cubs to record more than 86.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 86.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Regime

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